Trump withdrew US from Iran Nuclear Deal

Donald Trump has withdrawn the United States from the Iran nuclear deal and is reinstituting the "highest level" of economic sanction against it. The European Union has reaffirmed its commitment to the deal that it says is working. Merkel Macron and May are telephoning each other. Oil prices are experiencing turbulence. Benjamin Netanyahu is celebrating. Iran, of course, is hurting and fuming. And many puzzled analysts are asking again - just why was this necessary?

What has Trump announced?

Nothing Trump can surprise us. And this, though a big development., is not surprising at all.

·        US President says he will withdraw the US from an Obama era nuclear agreement with Iran. Calling it "decaying and rotten". He said the deal was "an embarrassment" to him "as a citizen".

·  This puts him against his friends across the Atlantic who were desperately hoping, praying and talking to save the deal. Going against advice from European allies, Trump said he would reimpose economic sanctions - the highest level 

·     The US Treasury said economic sanctions would not be reimposed on Iran immediately but would be subject to 90 days and 180-day wind-down-periods. Sanctions would be reimposed on the industries mentioned in 2015 deal including Iran oil sector, aircraft export, precious metals trade and Iranian government attempt to buy US dollar banknotes

·     In response, Iran said it was preparing to restart uranium enrichment. Key to making both nuclear energy and weapons. Iran President Hassan Rouhani said, “The US has announced that it doesn’t respect its commitments. I have ordered the Atomic Energy Organisations of Iran to be ready to start the enrichment of uranium at Industrial levels.

Former President Barack Obama, who signed the deal on behalf of the US three years ago, called Mr Trump’s announcement “misguided”

·       Trump had previously complained that the deal only limited Iran’s nuclear activities for a fixed period; had failed to stop the development of ballistic missiles; and had handed Iran a $100bn windfall that is used “as a slush fund for weapons, terror and oppression” across the middle east 

·   Trump has four major problems with the Iran deal: the JCPOA didn’t address Iran’s ballistic missiles program .it didn’t stop iron’s other misbehaviour in the middle east Key provisions of the agreement expire after 10 to 15 years. And it. rewarded Iran by unfreezing its assets frozen by years of US sanctions 

·    But the announcement may have been even starker than the expected. With Trump making clear that the full weight of sanctions would be reimposed, allowing no wriggle room.

Why did Trump do it?

v Trump is setting a personal score. He had sworn to undo Obama and his legacy and we have to admit, he is getting there. Obama should not have mocked Trump that fateful night.

v That Night the most scathing burn Trump received at dinner came in 2011, when he attended as a guest of Washington Post. At that time President Obama (alleging that Obama was a citizen of Kenya, not the US) and hinting at a possible run for office the following year.

v The scathing remarks did not sit well with Trump, because personal is what he does better. His becoming the leader of the free world can go down as one of history’s greatest revenge stories. 

v Since his inauguration, Trump has taken aim at practically every one of Obama signature achievements. Within a week of his inauguration, he had pulled the US out of Trans-Pacific Partnership trade negotiations. In June he announced his intent to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement on climate change mitigation.

v He also unwound Obama era protections for some undocumented immigrants. He reimposes sanctions and travel restrictions on Cuba, rescinded proposed control on power plant emission, fuel efficiency standards for new cars and other environmental regulations, and backed of some Obama era control on financial institutions. With Paris climate deal dead, the Iran nuclear deal on life support, and Obama care eviscerated Obama only real legacy at this point is the presidency of Donald Trump.

When can the move backfire?

Þ   In Tehran, President Rouhani, a relative moderate who faced down hardliners at home to reach the agreement with world powers as part of a policy to open up the country and its economy to the outside world.

Þ   “If we achieve the deal’s goals in cooperation with other members of the deal, it will remain in place,” Rouhani said in a televised speech. “I have ordered the foreign ministry to negotiate with the European countries, China and Russia in coming weeks. If at the end of this short period we conclude that we can fully benefit from the JCPoA with the cooperation of all countries, the deal would remain.”

Þ   Iranian officials told that Trump’s decision would set the stage for a resurgence of political infighting within Iran’s complex power structure. The U.S. exit from the deal, so closely associated in Iran with Rouhani, could tip the balance of power in favour of his hardline opponents

Þ   Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has been in power since 1989 and outranks the elected president, had said Iran would “shred” the deal if the United States pulled out.

Þ   While most U.S. allies decried the Trump administration’s decision to unravel the principal foreign policy achievement of Obama, the decision was hailed by Washington’s two main Middle East allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia, both of which long opposed the deal

Þ   The deal was “a recipe for disaster, a disaster for our region, a disaster for the peace of the world,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in praising Trump’s decision.

Þ   Saudi Arabia, a Sunni Muslim power that considers Shi’ite Iran to be its main regional foe, also hailed Trump’s move. “Iran used economic gains from the lifting of sanctions to continue its activities to destabilize the region, particularly by developing ballistic missiles and supporting terrorist groups in the region,” said a Saudi Foreign Ministry statement.

Þ   Britain, France and Germany had lobbied the Trump administration hard in recent weeks to keep the deal in place, arguing that it had succeeded in preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons and that to default on it would damage the credibility of Western countries in future negotiations.

Þ   EU countries believe it was their decision to stand with the Obama administration and impose firm sanctions against Iran’s oil and gas industry in 2011 that pushed Tehran to the negotiating table in the first place.

Þ   Since the deal was signed, the EU has effectively lifted all sanctions on Iran, but Washington has kept some in place over Iran’s missile program, which was not covered by the deal. That has slowed down a promised boon for the Iranian economy, scaring off foreign investors and making it difficult for Iranian banks to forge links with the outside world

Who is Trump sending Signal to?

¨     As he announced Tuesday that he would no longer abide by the Iran nuclear deal, President Trump also sent a not-so-veiled message to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. "Today's action sends a critical message: The United States no longer makes empty threats. When I make promises, I keep them," Trump said.

¨     But the very same issues that caused Trump to pull out of the Iran agreement will also be hurdles in North Korea talks — and in some cases, those hurdles will be higher. Unlike Iran, North Korea already has nuclear weapons. "Ripping up the Iran deal will demonstrate to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un that a deal with the United States can't be counted on. And it will give Kim Jong Unless incentive to make important concessions,

¨     Trump's position on the Iran deal could also box him in on negotiations with North Korea. On sanctions relief, human rights and missile technology, Trump may be setting a standard on Iran that might be impossibly high to reach on a North Korea deal. "They're not formally linked, but clearly they’re linked in many people's minds. They're two rogue regimes on different parts of the timeline toward developing a nuclear program

¨     The Trump administration has set a very high bar for success and painted itself into a corner through its very strong opposition — to not just the JCPOA, but other agreements with North Korea