Syrian Crises

Syria: The story of the conflict

Before starting I would like to pay my respects and condolences to each and every innocent life that has been lost in Syria. No matter which side wins, the ordinary people are always the losers. May they rest in peace and this conflict end as soon as possible.

Well to comprehensively explain the Syrian crisis in the simplest terms in a bit convoluted because there are many intertwined angles. But I will try to explain it in the most optimal way possible through basic questions that are associated with the ongoing geopolitical conflict. Read it as if it is a narrative rather a social science lecture.

WHERE IS IT HAPPENING?

The Syrian Arab Republic or simply ‘Syria’- a country in the middle east which shares border with countries like Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq.

WHAT IS THE LEGITIMATE STATUS QUO OF SYRIA?

-Syria is a secular and multi-cultural country officially governed by the Ba’athist regime headed by the President Bashar-Al-Assad.

-’Ba’athism’ is a political ideology that is centered around principles of Arab Nationalism, Arab Culturalism, Socialism, Secularism and Progressivism. However, It established a one party rule and is effectively a ‘Dictatorship’.

-Syria under Assad, remains the only secular country in the middle east and the last Ba’athist stronghold after the falls of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and the governments in Tunisia and Egypt. All these countries now have Islamic governments. We know how all of these came to pass.

WHAT LED TO THE CIVIL WAR?

-The wave of protests strikes Syria as an aftershock of the Arab Spring demonstrations.

-Arab spring demonstrations were a series of protests against the totalitarian regimes in the Arab world. These lead to the fall of governments in Tunisia and Egypt.

-Similar protests and demonstrations in Syria take place as well. The country is rocked by anti-regime rallies, protests, vandalism and Graffiti on the city walls and it keeps on escalating.

-Fearing that he might face the same fate as Tunisia and Egypt, Assad, retaliates very violently ordering the army to fire at the protesters.

-This leads to a severe crisis in the country and deepens the anti-regime sentiment. Even some high ranking officers from the Syrian Republican army defect and join the protesters. The magnitude increases the agitation now transforms into a rebellion.

-This new faction calls itself the ‘Free Syrian Army’ and calls for the overthrow of Assad’s regime and establish a so called ‘Democratic government’.

-Seeking autonomy for themselves, various Kurdish groups, who have always been oppressed by Ba’athist regimes of Iraq and Syria (since they are not Arabs but Turkmen, Armenians, Chechens) in the past also rise in rebellion. They call themselves the ‘Syrian Democratic Forces’.

-With so much agitation in the country, the ‘Syrian Civil war’ officially begins

THE COSTLIEST GAMBLE BY PRESIDENT BASHAR-AL-ASSAD-

*This is perhaps the one of the main reasons for the entire mess in Syria. *

-After the civil war breaks out, various extremist Jihadist groups from all over the world start joining the rebels (Free Syrian Army to be precise). One of the main and prominent terrorist groups out of these is ‘Al-Qaeda’. I hope this is a very familiar name.

-However, Assad doesn’t stop this progression. Rather, he encourages it and frees some Jihadist prisoners in his own custody and allows them to join the rebels.

-Now the question is why did he do such a thing?

 - He did it just to tinge the rebellion with Islamic extremism. It was thought to act in his interest.

-If the rebels get intermixed with the Jihadists, foreign intervention would be impossible as it would make Assad look like ‘The Good Guy’ in this conflict.

-Once, foreign intervention is prevented, Assad, with all the might of his army would bulldoze both the rebels and Jihadists ending the rebellion as well as Islamic terrorism in one swipe. Hence, Assad would become ‘An International Hero’.

-But it yields the exactly opposite output and directly magnetizes foreign intervention thus aggravating the already deteriorating mess leading to the current predicament.

RISE OF ISIS-

-After the US forces leave Iraq, a separate ambitious group breaks away within the Jihadist and calls itself the ‘Islamic State of Iraq and Syria’ or ISIS or ‘The Islamic State’.

-It had been called as ISIL and Islamic state of Iraq and Levant previously but encompassed the Syrian civil war in its propaganda and forming ISIS.

-It was formed as a result of the US Invasion of Iraq in 2003.

-It follows a brutal ideology of Islamic extremism, Wahabism, Salafism, Terrorism, Anti-women, Anti-non-muslim ideologies. It carried out public beheadings, bombings, massacres in the name of religion.

-It begins invading North-West Iraq and runs the area as its own ‘Caliphate’.

-After breaking out, it becomes the sworn enemy of Al-Qaeda, who is still in solidarity with the rebels.

-It also clashes with the Kurdish rebels’ time to time.

-It is aim is to not just fight the civil war, but create it’s own empire or ‘Caliphate’.

-While it reached its Zenith, in 2015 to 2016, and seemed like some unstoppable force, it is now a fractured group nearing it’s end.

INVOLVEMENT OF THE FOREIGN NATIONS FROM THE REGION-

-The foreign intervention is very perplexing as every country that is involved in the war is acting for the sake of it’s own geopolitical interests.

- Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Turkey and other Gulf countries are supporting the rebels.

-Iran is allied with Assad. There are a number of reasons for Iran to support him.

-Firstly, Assad is popular among the Shias in Syria due to his secularism.

-Secondly, Syria had supported Iran when Saddam Hussein had launched an invasion against them in 1980–88.

-Thirdly, Assad acts as a wall between Iran the west. Because if Assad falls, it would render the Ayatollah regime in Iran even more vulnerable to the West and its arch rival Israel.

-Furthermore, Iran backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah, also supports Assad as an act of extend alliance.

INVOLVEMENT OF WESTERN POWERS-

-US officially entered during the presidency of the Democrat President Barack Obama when Bashar-Al-Assad used chemical weapons on his own people.

-Prior to that, the CIA trained and armed the rebels to fight against Assad’s army.

-US enters the war. However, it’s focus is not Assad but ISIS. They enter the war on the pretext of fighting Islamic extremism and not Assad.

-Also its allies Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Turkey are anti-Assad. So its natural for the US to be polarized towards them.

-But here some complexities come up when Turkey attacks the Kurdish militants who fight ISIS but doesn’t attack ISIS. So a number of suspicions arise.

-Another major shift in the US involvement took place after Republican President Donald Trump won the elections in 2016.

-He initially stated in campaign that unlike Obama he would stay out of the conflict and even proclaimed that Assad must remain in power so that the middle east in stabilized.

-However, after coming to power, he turns away from his words and directly attacks Assad’s forces after he once uses chemical weapons on his own people.

-So, the US involvement in the Syrian civil war has changed from anti-ISIS under Obama to slightly Anti-Assad under Trump. Nevertheless, the US army still says it’s main aim is eradication of ISIS. Let’s see how this unfolds.

-On other hand, Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia, is strongly supporting Assad and knocking down anyone who is against him. Be it the rebels or ISIS or anyone without a second thought.

CURRENT SCENARIO-

-As you can infer from the degree of foreign involvement here, it is clear that the Syrian civil war is a total mess. The rebels are fractured and Assad has gained significant advantage after Russian intervention. But no matter if Assad keeps on recapturing city after city, all he gets is ruined cities and dead bodies of his own people. At the end of the day, normal civilians suffer due to geopolitical ambitions of powerful global leaders.

IDEAL SOLUTION-

I dont like Basha But the middle east is in mired in conflict and normal people long for peace and stability. Assad is their only chance. On one hand, you have Bashar-Al-Assad and other you have Islamic zealots. If Assad falls, something far worse would replace him. Example-Aftermath of the fall of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi in Iraq and Libya respectively.

But as far as my personal ideal solution is concerned, Bashar-Al-Assad should either step down as the President and appoint someone more liberal from his Ba’athist party OR himself liberalize his modus operandi to mitigate the negatives associated with him.